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Bussard Will be a household name dag nab it! « Open Forum « News, Reviews & Misc
 
Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 7:09pm #1
Generic
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Some educated speculation gleaned from the WB8 contract:
http://tinyurl.com/nlecq6


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Why monocles? Why not.

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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 7:30pm #2
ONeil
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Generic: thanks for the link ... that's great news!


Just assume everything I say about EEStor includes the phrase "if it works".
... 7 on the Lens scale (up from a low of 1)

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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 7:33pm #3
BCGF
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amazing stuff, very cool. I wonder how long till implementation?


Lens scale 0.01/.005 waiting for any real news. I was as high as 8/6

MY new wild assed stupid guess for reveal is
Sept 11 2010
April 22nd, Earth day and good Friday.
never

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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 7:36pm #4
scotter59
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Great....
Lets hope it all comes to fruition.
Polywell, EEStor and Cyclone Power - http://www.cyclonepower.com/

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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 8:51pm #5
Robw
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Dr. Richard Nebel, head of EMC2 corp. which is basically a group of 5 scientists carrying on with Dr. Bussard's work, believes he'll have the answer as to weather Polywell Fusion will work in less then 2 years....exciting stuff!

http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/05/dr-richard-neb...


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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 11:08pm #6
hoarybat
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cyclone said efficiencies nearing those of the best diesels. Ok but still not that high. I do like the fact it can burn anything. A Volt system car may benefit from an engine/generator like that.


Lensman Scale: 2 taking too long based on earlier promise/claims.

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Wed, 24 Jun 2009, 11:43pm #7
Pyjamas Before Christ
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bussard

Last edited Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 1:09am by Pyjamas Before Christ


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Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 9:14am #8
Yes, please
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Very interesting commentary during the Q&A on the problem of putting together the pieces of basic research and engineering prototypes without adequate funding, a problem driven by political forces.

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Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 9:27am #9
Yes, please
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Wow, what a mouthful about "revolutionary ideas" being ignored by the scientific community, the government, and the investment community!!!

Thanks, PJC!

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Thu, 25 Jun 2009, 9:28am #10
Yes, please
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Shoot--please note that my prior two posts immediately above refer to the Bussard video.

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Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 4:31am #11
Pyjamas Before Christ
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Yes, please , here are some more videos for you to enjoy


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Fri, 26 Jun 2009, 8:14am #12
Generic
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Thank you Pyjamas!

Had no idea there were more videos available beyond the google chat. Looking forward to watching them after work.


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Why monocles? Why not.

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Sat, 27 Jun 2009, 7:35am #13
scotter59
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I was thinking of my back yard, the grass that I cut. A Cyclone lawnmower, fed on grass clippings, which can be used in a Cyclone generator to charge an EEStor capacitor - car or home. I would not care how much grass clipping it required to charge up either.

I am about to have my monthly wrestling match with my ic lawnmower...

It concerns me that the powers that be want us all dependent on their services. This would be some independence...

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 10:08am #14
Pyjamas Before Christ
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woot!

"Energy Matter Conversion Corp., (EMC2)*, Santa Fe, N.M., is being awarded a $7,855,504 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for research, analysis, development, and testing in support of the Plan Plasma Fusion (Polywell) Project. Efforts under this Recovery Act award will validate the basic physics of the plasma fusion (polywell) concept, as well as provide the Navy with data for potential applications of polywell fusion. Work will be performed in Santa Fe, N.M., and is expected to be completed in April 2011. Contract funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was not competitively procured pursuant to FAR 6.302-1. The Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, Calif., is the contracting activity (N68936-09-C-0125)."

http://iecfusiontech.blogspot.com/2009/09/polyw...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/...


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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 10:37am #15
Robw
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Yup

Exciting stuff...Dr. Nebel has been unusually quiet lately but I'm sure he's busy...=).

Still, they claim they will know whether the scaling laws will hold up in 2 years, and if all goes well, commercial plants could be operating by 2020.

The combination of Polywell and EEStor would be enough to practically eliminate fossil fuel use.


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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 10:48am #16
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The good thing about Polywell is that they now have carefully peer-reviewed experimental evidence from WB-7 and a scientific rationale which everyone agrees is possible. There are still many uncertainties, which will mostly be resolved over next two years with data from WB-8.

It is much more likely to provide useful fusion power in the next twenty years than ITER! Not that that is saying a lot.


Assumptions: 1) E=1/2CV2

(Only dummies assume this)

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 11:38am #17
Prof Neilson
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Tom For once we agree totally.

Private company raises Government funds based on:
Idea 20 years in gestation.
Missed delivery dates.
Polywell idea is routinely dismissed by eminent scientists.
The data is not published (secrecy per the US Navy).
Secret peer review by unknown reviewers.
Reasonable - not excessive - money available.
The Navy no longer calls it a 'AGEE' but a fusion device breaking secrecy.
Initial application likely military, not commercial.
Religious Web Site filled with believers and skeptics.
Potential to change the world.
Disclaimer: I follow and post on both web sites.

Why is this different from EEStor?

Just one difference that I can see.
Government not private enterprise money.


All I want for Christmas is a Graphene / Ionic Liquid Electrical Generator.

PNeilson@NeilsonLabs.com

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 11:59am #18
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big improvements in material science is also helpful. Improvements are being made in manufacturable superconductors that have a high enough thermal conductivity that they can be effectively cooled. Making the x-ray spectra very narrow is probably the most important thing if they are going to use the B11+H reaction.


“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.”- Michael Crichton

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 12:16pm #19
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Why is this different from EEStor?

The participation of the US Government is much less visible (if at all) for EEStor and it appears as though EEStor is coming to market a great deal faster.

If Polywell requires substantial current integration at the alpha collector, I can't think of a better capacitor bank than series connected EESU's.


“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.”- Michael Crichton

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 2:35pm #20
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Go, Polywell, Go!


We are the 99%. A better world is possible.

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 3:30pm #21
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Polywell is the only other project that seems to me to have a chance to have as big an impact as eestor. I guess polywell...if it works out, would be bigger. I havent read too much on it but I've spoken to DoD folks who believe in it.


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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 3:32pm #22
spaceballs_3000
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eestorblog wrote:

... as big an impact as eestor. ...

LOL as big? it's much much bigger!


The only thing that will slowly change believer's minds is years of unfulfilled promises.

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 3:42pm #23
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PNeilson 9.9/2 wrote:

Tom For once we agree totally.

Private company raises Government funds based on:
Idea 20 years in gestation.
Missed delivery dates.
Polywell idea is routinely dismissed by eminent scientists.
The data is not published (secrecy per the US Navy).
Secret peer review by unknown reviewers.
Reasonable - not excessive - money available.
The Navy no longer calls it a 'AGEE' but a fusion device breaking secrecy.
Initial application likely military, not commercial.
Religious Web Site filled with believers and skeptics.
Potential to change the world.
Disclaimer: I follow and post on both web sites.

Why is this different from EEStor?

Just one difference that I can see.
Government not private enterprise money.

Glad you make comparison, it is illuminating.

Polywell has its "P will change the world" dreamers. But the "centre of gravity" is that it is unproven, worth finding out even at 10% chance of working (though there are degrees to working in any case - it could be useful as a neutron source).

No-one is inventing new science to explain it. The scientific discussion takes place without unfounded optimistic speculations.

The scientific case for Polywell has been made properly and while there is debate about whether this is correct, it is good science and any external scientist reviewing it would say that at least it has small chance of working and should be checked.

Nebel does not claim that Polywell will work, and in fact claims nothing except that he is collecting worthwhile data. Others (a panel of indepenent scientists) evaluate this data and decide whether funding continues or not. Said scientists have no commercial interest in the issue.

Polywell has recently won $8,000,000 funding based on such an independent review.

Now here is what would make Polywell LIKE eestor:

Polywell gets funding by selling license to public company that promisses to make billions by making Polywell-powered spacecraft.

Company has unsuccessful record in spacecraft manufacture but says it will sell licenses to other big players

Nebel spends nights writing patents which assume Polywell works and describe use as PEGU (Polywell Energy Generation Unit) in spacecraft.

Nebel makes occasional scientific statements about Polywell which all external scientists consider to be preposterous.

Before there is any public demonstration of working Polywell, Nebel pays company to design ancillary equipment to make Polywell-powered VASIMIR.

NASA take some interest in Polywell but refuse to say what this is, they do not claim to have ever seen a working Polywell prototype.

You get the idea...

PS - also - no-one has ever suggested that the EMC2 crowd are faudulent.

Last edited Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 3:54pm by ee-tom


Assumptions: 1) E=1/2CV2

(Only dummies assume this)

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 3:50pm #24
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eestorblog wrote:

Polywell is the only other project that seems to me to have a chance to have as big an impact as eestor. I guess polywell...if it works out, would be bigger. I havent read too much on it but I've spoken to DoD folks who believe in it.

I sincerely hope Polywell's impact will be very different from Eestor's.


Assumptions: 1) E=1/2CV2

(Only dummies assume this)

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 4:02pm #25
Robw
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ee-tom

Have you been following Polywell closely enough that you have an opinion about its chances of success, and by success I mean commercially viable power?

They must have been pretty positive results from the WB-7 tests, I think the grant was larger then most expected.

And yes, Dr. Nebel has never publicly stated that it will work but if you read into some of his older posts on talk-polywell, he seems pretty confident in some of his forward looking statements.


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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 4:28pm #26
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Why are we spending Billions on ITER and only Millions on Polywell?????


"Most people don't believe something can happen until it already has." Max Brooks, World War Z.

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 4:35pm #27
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Tom

A few more facts.

Dr. Bussard raised his first $20 million or so of public financing for Polywell based on outrageous, unverified, fantastic claims. Any physicist asked about Dr. Bussard's claims 10 years ago said he was a crackpot. As the last of his money ran out a few years ago, on his sixth attempt at a polywell, he said he had a success. He had a tiny shred of data of questionable quality. He then spent several years without funding and died while popularizing his ideas and seeking funding. Oh, and he did write patents and has a polywell patent.

Dr. Bussard's Google video spurred an internet campaign lead by M. Simon (perhaps aided by the data) that got a small amount of funding to try and replicate Dr. Bussard's last results.

We think Dr Nebel's replication results were successful, he got more funding in any event. There is no public data so we just don't know what Dr. Nebel found.

Someone could attribute nefarious motives to Dr's Bussard and Nebel as you do to Dick Weir. After all, the public evidence is the same. But I won't.

The only real difference I find between Polywell Energy Generation and EESU Energy Storage is that EEStor has to function with private money vs. Polywell's public money.

I see that everything EEStor has done is necessary to function as a private company. I base this on my own experience founding and running a private company. My only commercial complaint about EEStor is that they have not raised enough capital to move fast enough to be successful.

Therefore, I read your response as:

1) You are basically against any kind of privately financed technological development.
2) You are for any kind of government funded technological development.

Now I know why England lost the empire.

Best wishes from an Ugly American,

Paul


All I want for Christmas is a Graphene / Ionic Liquid Electrical Generator.

PNeilson@NeilsonLabs.com

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 4:37pm #28
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Robw wrote:

ee-tom

Have you been following Polywell closely enough that you have an opinion about its chances of success, and by success I mean commercially viable power?

They must have been pretty positive results from the WB-7 tests, I think the grant was larger then most expected.

And yes, Dr. Nebel has never publicly stated that it will work but if you read into some of his older posts on talk-polywell, he seems pretty confident in some of his forward looking statements.

I think it is a long-shot. There are many unresolved issues - if it was clearer it would get more main-stream funding. But through a long-shot I do think there is real possibility. The WB-7 results were clearly positive. Wait two years (at least, unlike Eestor, you have a time limit).

If it is positive after two years, the prospects of commercial power will still be uncertain, but I would expect big excitement and effort thereafter.


Assumptions: 1) E=1/2CV2

(Only dummies assume this)

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 4:44pm #29
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Therefore, I read your response as:

1) You are basically against any kind of privately financed technological development.
2) You are for any kind of government funded technological development.

Now I know why England lost the empire.

How about:
I support scientists who go for high risk/return ideas and don't make preposterous claims (Nebel)

I don't support scientists who make absurd claims based on zero evidence, and talk nonsense (Weir)

If some scientist came out with support for Weir's ideas about ultra-high ED ceramic dielectric and a plan of investigation to confirm/deny it I would back that. But they won't, because the science case can't be made, even as a long-shot.


Assumptions: 1) E=1/2CV2

(Only dummies assume this)

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Sun, 20 Sep 2009, 5:00pm #30
Prof Neilson
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If it was not for Bussard's preposterous claims Nebel would have nothing.

Weir is not a scientist - he is trying to build a business.

Like I said - for you (and most of the English) any commercial intent is suspicious. For me (and many, maybe even most Americans) if you don't have commercial intent who cares!


All I want for Christmas is a Graphene / Ionic Liquid Electrical Generator.

PNeilson@NeilsonLabs.com

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