Just one possible hypothesis ....
But E_Po may have no good reason to smile and he certainly has no right to. From where I am sitting "technology risk" hasn't changed.
I have been travelling for 36 hrs and when I have landed how fascinating is it for me to find these posts ?!!!!
So we now have the stuff on the table of which for me at least, both dreams and speculation are made :-)
So why don't I add to the pot. What hasn't happened?
The first is that no-one appears to have sold their stakes in either ZMC or EEStor. The second is that no-one (only ZMC) have taken up the option to increase their EEStor stake.
ZMC has arguably the inside running on the use of the EESU technology, if and when it is available. ZMC now has a credible percentage in EEStor at approx. 10%.
Now think like investors guys. None of you on this string are yet. What does this open up?
There are only two parties whose game is on the move. One is ZMC for whom the raising of funds appears (from their public statements) to be their next move. The other is MT who has "cleared the decks for action" by resigning as a director of EEStor. (i.e. no longer with insider trading knowledge)
Before discussing this let's first look at the side show.
What about the other three parties (other than KP who probably had no right) who could have exercised their rights? Well, they didn't; which suggests at least four possible motives. The first is that they outright didn't have confidence in the EESU. The second is that they did not have rights of disclosure on the progress/success of the EESU. The third is that they did not have the funds (times are tough), and the fourth is only that their main pre-occupation is with avoidance of stake dilution.
What we do know is that if the EESU is for real, the Obama energy gravy train will fund EEStor to the hilt. So this tidy up of the capital structure may be the last major play before we have "lift-off". All that may have happened is the tidy up of EEStor capitalisation and funding in a way that had been contemplated by the parties a couple of years ago - perhaps they are all hanging together tighter than before. (hey you can't blame a guy for dreaming).
So now all the key players could well have firmed up on their stakes in EEStor.
Lt's return to ZMC insiders who must also be concerned about the dilution of their equity in ZMC. The size of funding needed for ZMC is sufficiently great that one could see perhaps only two likely possibilities for fund raising. The first being the raising of funds from insiders or anyone else who knows what is happening. The other is that they take pot luck on what the market will offer for a highly illiquid share.
Note the word "illiquid". There has been no significant movement in the ZNN price for some time. The smart money and the insider money is going no-place.
It is a while since ZMC announced it's preliminary intent to raise capital.
A longer while since MT resigned from EEStor. So there are three substantial players on the sidelines who probably do know what is happening. MT, KP and LM.
Would any of these want to buy into the company with the first mover rights to utlitise technology where preservation of first mover advantage is demonstrably a key stratagem?
Alternatively, would IC want to water down his holding where the open market price could otherwise be as low as CAD1.50-2.00?
We have seen what could be the side shows, but what is the main event going to show us? The main event will be the price asked for shares and the degree of dilution palatable for the insiders.
On "techology risk" Y_Po may be right or he may be wrong - and either way I am not fussed. But remember Y_Po, he who laughs last, laughs longest and you may well yet be wrong over technology risk.
But to me, the move at 4.50pm on 2 July is not about technology, it is about business.