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News, Reviews and Discussion of EEStor Inc.
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Mon, 19 Mar 2012, 4:54pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi Guys,

Just for a friendly exchange with Iran...

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/navy-pe...

Escallation. Just one miss-step....?

kind regards
ei

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Mon, 19 Mar 2012, 4:39pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi Guys,

From this distance the squabbling between Democrats and Republicans looks trivial. Your essential problem is that you are all living in a country that has become un-governable.

Petrol prices are a red herring even though they cause some spectacular knee-jerk reactions from your President and politicians.

Petrol and diesel prices throughout the world tend to be more affected by cost of oil, refining costs and either the imposition of taxes, or the subsidies dished out by the local government.

The USA has domestically had the luxury of subsidies for oil producers (as production incentives) and has imposed very low taxes. Most oil exporting nations have historically subsidised petrol prices but some (like Iran) are winding those back as they have become too costly.

Europe is now in a bind because they (particularly Germany) are beholden to Russia for their oil and gas supplies. But their high taxes on petrol and diesel have been used to force people out of cars and into public transport because of the negative balance of payments impacts from oil imports.

Something similar in Australasia. Our prices are half way between your's and Europe's.

When you look at WTI, Brent and say, Tapis crude prices, Brent is about USD20/bbl higher than WTI (for a slightly inferior product) and Tapis is about USD10/bbl higher than Brent. This means the oil costs more for refineries in Europe.

So it is mainly the tax driving the end petrol price differentials between countries with all prices rising and falling on changes in global oil prices.

Oil futures prices are based on COMEX and LME markets but despite involvement of people hedging and gambling, the net price of oil is determined in the longer term by supply and demand. This graph at figure 2. of the enclosed item, shows that when supplies reached the present plateau and demand kept going, then prices have soared - irrespective of those pesky speculators. I refer to that as the "plateau oil impact".

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9008#more

When we get post peak. Then look out. Prices will go ballistic and the pricing precedent for what happens then is the period from 1850 to 1870 when whale oil became unobtainable.

The reason why the US consumption per person is twice that of European consumption of oil per person, is due to the favoured tax and subsidy regime in the USA.

Americans may be surprised to hear that many teenagers in Britain and Europe now have no ambitions to ever own a car due to cost...

While US politicians deny the peaking of oil supplies, in Europe they are preparing for it and they have been the first to take a hit as this Swedish energy expert notes...

http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/2541/

Hope this is all of some interest.

Kind regards
ei

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Sun, 18 Mar 2012, 4:56pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi wc,

I am not so sure about the reality of different policies.

But my concerns stem from the closeness of the time when oil supplies will start to fall. To have the USA/Israel brinkmanship threaten the number 4 global producer is a real worry.

IMHO if energy supplies fall in total, there cannot be any global economic growth. This is likely to happen by 2013 due to...

1. Fukushima has sidelined almost all of Japan's nuclear capability.
2. In 2013 Russia removes 20 million lbs pa from the global supply of U3O8.
3. My calculations show a fall in global annual supply of conventional oil starts in 2013.

My latest comment on oil to my circle of email recipients is as follows:

"Hi Guys,

This is just for energy buffs who are interested in oil. Criticisms are welcome .

To recap, the oil producer countries are ranked as follows:

1. Russia (Putin has a policy of high taxation to suppress exploration and thereby conserve oil for the future)
2. KSA (King Abdullah has a policy of keeping back oil for future generations – hence they have some capacity that is shut in)
3. USA (also the world’s largest consumer and the instigator of technology to develop oil and gas shales)
4. Iran (under comprehensive commercial attack – which may soon become a military threat to oil supplies in the region)

Right now, global supply and demand are finely balanced. Saudi Arabia is reputed to have 2.5 million bbls/day of swing facility consisting of oil shut in. This is 90% of the notional global surplus of supply over present demand. But there are a couple of things wrong with this assessment.

1. Their biggest fields are the oldest fields and these are for the main part post peak.
2. They have a lot of heavy sour crude that is not able to be processed by a number of the aging refineries in the OECD.
3. They acknowledge that it will take at least a couple of months to bring some 700k bbls of the swing facility on line.
4. Their oil reserves and resources are unknown. In 1987 they increased their declared reserves by 50% and despite heavy production since then, have maintained that reserves declaration.
5. KSA has a policy of leaving oil in the ground for future generations – which means they must be persuaded to release reserves.
6. KSA domestic consumption is ramping up as population explodes – so a greater proportion is unavailable for export.

There is further concern that the future of oil production in the KSA is dependent on what happens at Ghawar because it produces about half of the KSA’s total oil production. The Ghawar oil field started producing in 1951. Ghawar peaked at 6.6 million bbls per day and is now about 4.5 million bbls per day. In terms of an analogy I have used earlier, the volume of production from this field is only being maintained by “sticking more straws in the milkshake”. But also the field has been under intensive waterflood for about a decade in order to maintain pressure in the reservoir – so, many of the new wells are for water injection (this is also happening at a number of the other larger older fields). There is a programme of also installing submersible pumps in many of the extractor wells.

To repeat myself, I believe that when Ghawar’s output suffers a significant drop will be when the peak oil plateau of global production ends and global output of conventional oil, starts to fall.

Since 2006 the number of rigs employed by KSA doubled. About 18 months ago Saudi Aramco announced they had appointed Halliburton to provide expertise on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques for Ghawar. Even so, this would involve access to large quantities of CO2 or solvents for injection. Hence I am inclined to wonder how successful they will be with EOR. Anyway, this announcement seems to be something of an admission that all is not well in the world’s largest oil field. Further, over the last two years, KSA have been redeploying other technology to replace oil for power generation – stating they need to leave more for export.

Reports have been filtering through that the cost of oil production has increased rapidly due in part to rapidly escalating capital expenditure and new technology costs. Given the cost of maintaining national loyalty and supporting social programmes, it has been suggested that the government of the KSA now needs an oil price of USD100/bbl to meet budget expenditures.

Ghawar is so old it should in theory (like Mexico’s Cantarell field) be dying. Certainly, depletion rates in their four largest old super giant oil fields must be putting pressure on KSA’s oil production. We can now only wonder at what KSA’s true oil reserves and resources are.

So the way the Israelis are playing fast and loose with Iran doesn’t seem particularly sensible to me right now. Sanctions yes, attack no.

The latest reasonably comprehensive look at Iran’s markets and the KSA oil production - giving something of a field by field analysis is available at this link below...

http://peakoil.com/production/tech-talk-going-b...

May Ghawar live long and prosper .
"

FYI

kind regards
ei

Last edited Sun, 18 Mar 2012, 5:02pm by energy investor

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Sat, 17 Mar 2012, 9:46pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Both individually and collectively you folks must start debating whether you will require your armies to account for the millions of people they have killed since the last declared war.

You must also decide whether you accept responsibility as a nation for being the world's "peacemaker" while you have a conflict of interest - i.e. the Carter Doctrine among other aspirations.

Sure Iran has been stupid enriching uranium to 20% U235. But they can be forced to hand that over.

Vladimir (contrary to his public protestations to the contrary) wants Israel and the US to hit out at Iran because it will weaken you. Putin does not want nukes at his Southern border. Pakistan is collapsing and they have nukes. Israel has nukes under their control but Russia will want the peacemaker role in the region and the US will probably yield that to Russia if Israel strikes.

Seems to many of us that the israeli tail is wagging the USA dog and a focus on POTUS elections completely obscures the real issue.

kind regards
ei

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Sat, 17 Mar 2012, 9:35pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

But let's get serious now. You folks are debating politics when your leaders are getting ready for war?

This was an email I circulated to my group yesterday...

"Hi Guys,

There are only four reasons in support this supposition which means strikes could happen but frankly I suspect it may be more likely April/May:

1. It has been reported that the Israeli government has decided to move on Iran
2. The US aircraft carrier Enterprise is moving into position in the Med. Bringing to 3 the number of US carrier groups surrounding the designated war zone.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/im...
3. Why else would Obama go down on his hands and knees to the Saudis asking for more oil?
4. Why else would Obama consider dipping into the SPR and seek agreement from the UK to do the same?

Brent oil prices have gapped up (but only a tad) on the news flow...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-126-israel-...?

These guys are nuts. I sure hope common sense prevails."

So while you republicans argue with you democrats, your country is about to have a shot at another million or two of the world's citizens?

What are you doing about that?

kind regards
ei

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Sat, 17 Mar 2012, 9:31pm Fission is OUT...yeah, right. »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Uranium production is some 20 million lbs per year less than useage at this time but until 2013 the shortfall will be made up by Russia via the megatons to megawatts prgramme. But when it comes to an end, then what? Thorium? Plutonium?

The British are worried (despite never seeming to know whether they want nukes or not) as evidenced by this debate...

http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/uk-use-nu...

I am long uranium miners because the supply/demand stats don't add up.

kind regards
ei

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Sat, 17 Mar 2012, 9:24pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi Eric,

Its no good trying to pacify me. There will be war between NZ and Oz ... and it seems like Julia Gillard has fired the first shots.

She had the temerity to say that it is just as well the Irish emigrated to Australia because without the Irish, Australia would be just like New Zealand.

Problem is that the most of the early Irish immigrants were convicts (so that part makes us happy) but she didn't intend for the Irish to take umbrage at that. She intimated that somehow the Irish are superior to Kiwis. When of course we all know that no-one is:-)

We kiwis have no opinion on the Irish and their sheep because, as everyone knows, you can't see further than your nose in Irish fog.

But those Aussies?

kind regards
ei

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Fri, 16 Mar 2012, 10:42pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Here we go again, those Aussies telling porkies, about sterling American humanitarians - no less!

http://www.news.com.au/world/kony-2012-film-mak...

It will be war I tell you!

kind regards
ei
:-)

PS, they are still trying to work out what he was caught doing, so they can copy him. (memo. sheep still in grave danger)

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Fri, 16 Mar 2012, 10:22pm OT Politics: you can discuss politics in this thread...but only here »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi Guys,

Lets get to serious stuff here. You Americans should talk to Australians about racial tolerance.

We kiwis are still annoyed that you Americans claim the Wright Brothers were the first to fly, yet we know it was Richard Pearce. But we were not prepared to start a war over it.

We have always known that Phar Lap was a kiwi race horse and that lamingtons and pavlova were invented in New Zealand, and even that "thongs" were invented in New Zealand and called Jandals. We didn't go to war over that.

We didn't go to war over the claim that Russel Crowe was an Aussie.

But fair suck of the sav. !

This article about Manuka honey that we have been using in medicine and exporting around the world, has suddenly been "discovered" in Australia.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/honey-i-killed-...

Now if those Little Aussie Battlers (aka bastards) try to steal this one, it will be war. I am telling you war!!

We may even secede as the seventh state of Australia.

Wot they haven't annexed us yet? That is only because they are too busy doing unmentionable things to sheep.

Just between us (confidentially) our parents were of good ancestry who emigrated here to kiwiland at our own cost. They were exported as prisoners.

Breeding does out doesn't it?

:-)

kind regards
ei

PS I am bored with this American political commentary...

Last edited Fri, 16 Mar 2012, 10:28pm by energy investor

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Mon, 12 Mar 2012, 3:11pm HHO Generator? »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Try googling the hythane patent and check the web site of Eden Energy and you will find out that hydrogen can be mixed...the outcome is better performance and reduced NOx.

The Indian Government have mandated a move to a hydrogen economy and it seems that Eden is the only company well placed to take advantage of that.

Hythane is considered a transition stage for implementation with bus fleets to reduce pollution.

Eden also have a system developed by the University of Queensland to split methane gas (CH4) into hydrogen and carbon fibres in order to cut the overall cost by providing a high value revenue stream. It is called pyrolysis and the catalysts they use in the process vary depending on whether they want to produce carbon fibres or carbon nanotubes. A production prototype plant is under construction.

Disclosure: we have a small investment in ASX:EDE

Kind regards
ei

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Mon, 12 Mar 2012, 3:00pm Cadre Confidence Poll »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Hi Guys,

IMHO the answer should be the same for both questions. If things work out that is.

My opinion is 30% and 30%

Something like this is potentially so radical that success must be considered improbable. But on a risk to return basis, I am still happy with my stake.

This is a speculative and high risk investment. Despite the delays to reveal and the ZMC cash burn, the flow of patents and the fact that no-one can now argue convincingly that the "science is impossible", means for me that there is no discernable change to risk since I first put up money in 2008.

kind regards
ei

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Fri, 09 Mar 2012, 2:37pm Molycorp buys Neo Material for C$1.3 billion »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Looks like Molycorp, Arafura, Iluka and Lynas will cut off all the aspiring hundreds of little start-ups off at the knees.

kind regards
ei

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Thu, 08 Mar 2012, 3:33pm Kony 2012 -- This Site Shutting Down »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Yup

ei

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Wed, 07 Mar 2012, 4:46pm Timeline of development for the CMBT dielectric »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Big Mig has stirred my interest in the history with his excellent locked post.

In modern society human knowledge has become an incremental thing with one generation of scientists able to adapt, develop and build on the work of those who came before.

I would be interested if anyone interested in this subject could flesh out my understanding of the timeline for development of BaTiO3 to becoming a dielectric material. I have no objection to someone more authoritative/accurate correcting me...

As a kiwi I suspect it all started with work to better understand atomic structures at the Cavendish Institute in the UK thence with the work of Ernest Rutherford - a farmer's son from Nelson, New Zealand who defined the atomic structure, went on to split the atom and became Lord Rutherford of Nelson. He was both an electrical researcher, a chemist and a physicist and he got his first major award (nobel prize) while at McGill University in Canada before moving on to Manchester in the UK. In 1921 he had a research associate called Niels Bohr who went on to fame in his own right first in the Cavendish Institute (Cambridge UK) then at the University of Copenhagen.

I understood that Bohr got his doctorate from the University of Copenhagen for a thesis which was a purely theoretical piece of work on the explanation of the properties of the metals with the aid of the electron theory, which remains a classic on the subject. It was in this work that Bohr was first confronted with the implications of Planck's quantum theory of radiation.

He further built on Rutherford's work in defining atomic structure.

(During the occupation of Denmark in WWII, Bohr escaped to UK and USA where he became involved in the the Atomic Energy Project. In 1950 he wrote to the UN warning about nuclear proliferation.)

It seems that Von Hippel only spent a year working at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen - about 1935 - but in 1936 he moved to MIT. In 1940 he founded the Laboratory for Insulation Research at MIT.

Von Hippel was a pioneer in the study of dielectrics, ferromagnetic and ferroelectric materials, and semiconductors and was a codeveloper of radar during World War II. A claim to fame was his discovery of ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties of barium titanate (BaTiO3).

He was the author of the pioneering book Molecular Science and Molecular Engineering (1959). The term molecular engineering was coined by him in the 1950s, and he suggested the feasibility of constructing nanomolecular devices. The premier award of the Materials Research Society is named in his honor.

The research into the use of BaTiO3 then took off as we can see from the number of patents listed as precedent to the patent applications from EEStor. Von Hippel must have followed the expanded research into barium titanate with some interest as, although he was a contemporary of Niels Bohr's (who died in 1962) he lived to 2003 and died at the ripe old age of 105 yrs. But the lineage and origins of the mythological EESU we are interested in continues.

On the priphery the work of von Hippel's students and people such as Hansen, Bruno and many others have tried to find commerical applications for the properties of barium titanate. Clearly much work went on in the years since 1962 at other universities including PSU and in many countries.

A chemistry student of von Hippel's was one Carl Nelson. I understand that in 1962 Carl was supervised by Prof von Hippel to provide a report, funded by DARPA on the properties of barium titanate. I know little about Carl, other than that he will be well into his 70's, so hope others can fill in some detail here...

Carl went to work at IBM where he and Dick Weir collaborated. They went into business together to try to revolutionise disk storage. Unfortunately it seems IBM beat them to market with a cheaper solution. Then in 2001, Dick and Carl started up with EEStor - as Dick says, once the DC:DC electronic technology solutions were becoming available (via Polarity).

Brettspot's brilliant timelinetakes over from here...

http://www.dipity.com/EEBretspot/EEStor_Timeline/

But the early stuff which enabled the work of EEStor and many others, came from the work of many scientists since about 1900.

This posting is just intended as a tribute to them and something of a draft ancestral pedigree (whakapapa in Maori) for the mythological EESU that we are all waiting for.

Please fell free to correct me on this... after all I am a technical illiterate and as Y-Po so kindly puts it, "a moron" :-)

kind regards
ei

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Sun, 26 Feb 2012, 1:55pm ZENN Announces Appointment and Filing Date Change »
energy investor
EESUrient
Registered: May, 2009
Last visit: Wed, 17 Apr 2013
Posts: 1763

Student,

Nope - and I'm off sailing for two weeks so can't come out to play until I get back :-)

kind regards
ei

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